The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is close to the last weekly candle in August. Some traders believe that Bitcoin’s performance over the next two weeks could decide whether the price will fall below $10,000 again or whether we’ll see a prolonged upward trend.
The weekly candlestick closing coincides with the expiration of the Bitcoin CME futures contracts and Deribit options contracts. It could potentially set a precedent for the month of September, especially if Bitcoin closes above or below its key levels.
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In the short term, technical analysts often consider the $11,800 to be the key level for Bitcoin. The closing of a long period of time, close to the level, would increase the possibilities of a more accentuated setback. A close above, keeping the monthly candle green, could cause Bitcoin to see another leg up.
Mohit Sorout, founding partner of Bitazu Capital, said in a tweet that a run at $11,800 „would put sellers to sleep. Sorout referred to Bitcoin’s daily Bollinger Bands chart, which shows the area of interest for both sellers and buyers.
Bollinger Bands marked on Bitcoin daily chart
With only a few days left before the monthly close, the Bitcoin futures market is still very careful. Typically, the number of long contract holders in the futures market outnumbers short-term sellers. Bybt’s data shows that long contracts account for 53.36% of the market, showing that traders are cautious as September arrives with three important wildcard scenarios.
The short-term bullish scenario for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum in the short term, traders say that the BTC price mainly needs to recover above the support level turned into resistance at USD 11,800. If this happens, traders expect another possible move towards USD 12,500.
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A cryptomoney trader known as „John Wick“ believes that investors are not considering longer terms, as the weekly chart, which uses the $3,600 Bitcoin fund in March and the $9,130 local fund in July as the basis points, shows a support trend line. As long as the trend line doesn’t break intensely in the short term, the trader hinted at a tweet that this could be an optimistic market structure.
Weekly Bitcoin chart
Crypt-money analyst Nunya Bizniz suggested a similar Crypto Cash scenario in a longer time frame. If the current monthly candlestick structure follows the previous formations, the analyst said there is a possibility that it will mark the beginning of a new bull run. That would indicate that the price of Bitcoin would potentially see a steady rise over the next 6 to 12 months, tweeting:
„BTC month: VWAP anchored to previous cycle highs. A new successful test of AVWAP has led to bullish markets. Does the current month satisfy the new test and will it lead to a bullish run (this time)? Note: vertical gray line = halving“.
However, a variable in the expectations of a run similar to 2017 is that the second halving occurred in mid-2016. If a similar trend emerges, the chances of Bitcoin seeing a proper run are greater by the end of 2021, rather than during the winter of this year.